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Forex market trend analysis

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forex market trend analysis

One of the most powerful means of winning a trade is the portfolio of Forex trading strategies applied by traders in different situations. Following a single system all the time is not enough for a successful trade. Each trader should know how to face up to all market conditions, which, however, is not so easy, and requires a deep study and understanding of economics. In order to forex you meet your educational needs and create your own portfolio of trading strategies, IFC Markets provides you both with reliable resources on trading and complete information on all the popular and simple forex trading strategies applied by successful traders. The trading strategies we represent are suitable for all traders who are novice in trade or want to improve their skills. All the strategies classified and explained below are for educational purposes and can be applied by each trader in a different way. Perhaps the major part of Forex trading strategies is based on the main types of Forex market analysis used to understand the market movement. These main analysis methods include technical analysis, fundamental analysis and market sentiment. Each of the mentioned analysis methods is used in a certain way to identify the market trend and make reasonable predictions on future market behaviour. If in technical analysis traders mainly deal with different charts and technical tools to reveal the past, present and future state of currency prices, in fundamental analysis the importance is given to the macroeconomic and political factors which can directly influence the foreign exchange market. Quite a different approach to the market trend is provided by market sentiment, which is based on the analysis and opinions of traders. Below you can read about each analysis method in detail. Forex technical analysis is the study of market action primarily through the use of charts for the purpose of forecasting future price trends. Forex traders can develop strategies based on various technical analysis tools including market trend, volume, range, support and resistance levels, chart patterns and indicators, as well as conduct a Multiple Time Frame Analysis using different time-frame charts. Technical analysis strategy is a crucial method of evaluating assets based on the analysis and statistics of past market action, such as past prices and past volume. Their firm belief is that the future performance of markets can be indicated by the historical performance. Trend represents one of the most essential concepts in technical analysis. All the technical analysis tools that an analyst uses have a single purpose: The meaning of Forex trend is not so much different from its general meaning - it is nothing more than the direction in which the market moves. But more precisely, foreign exchange market does not move in a straight line, its moves are characterized by a series of zigzags which resemble successive waves with clear peaks and troughs or highs and lows, as they are often called. Though most people think that foreign exchange market can be either upward or downward, actually there exist not two but three types of trends:. Traders and investors confront three types of decisions: During any type of trend they should develop a specific strategy. In order to completely understand the essence of support and resistance trading strategy you should firstly know what a horizontal level is. Actually, it is a price level indicating either a support or resistance in the market. The support and resistance in technical analysis are the terms for price lows and highs respectively. The term support indicates the area on the chart where the buying interest is significantly strong and surpasses the selling pressure. It is usually marked by previous troughs. Resistance level, contrary to the support level, represents an area on the chart where selling interest overcomes buying pressure. It is usually marked by previous peaks. In case this is not so, for instance, if the support level comes down to the previous trough, it may signify that the uptrend is coming to the end or at least it is turning into a sideways trend. It is likely that trend reversal from up to down will occur. The opposite situation takes place in a downtrend; the failure of each support level to move lower than the previous trough may again signal changes in the existing trend. Range trading strategy, which is also called channel trading, is generally associated with the lack of market direction and it is used during the absence of a trend. Range trading market currency price movement in channels and the first task of this strategy is to find the range. This process can be carried out by connecting a series of highs and lows with a horizontal trendline. Range trading actually works in a market with just enough volatility due forex which the price goes on wiggling in the channel without breaking out of the range. In the case the level of support or resistance breaks you should exit range-based positions. The most efficient way of managing risks in range trading is the use of stop loss orders as most traders do. They place sell limit orders below resistance when selling the range and set the take profit down near support. When buying support they place buy limit orders above support and place take profit orders near the previously identified resistance level. And risks can be managed by placing stop loss orders above the resistance level when analysis the resistance zone market a range, and below the support level when buying support. Technical indicators analysis calculations which are based on the price and volume of a security. They are used both to confirm the trend and the quality of chart patterns, and to help traders determine the buy and sell signals. The indicators can be applied separately to form buy and sell signals, as well as can be used together, in conjunction with chart patterns and price movement. They can be applied separately to form buy and sell signals, as well as can be used together, in conjunction with the market. However, not all of them are used widely by traders. The following indicators mentioned below are of utmost importance market analysts and at least one of them is used by each trader to develop his trading strategy:. You can easily learn how to use each indicator and develop trading strategies by indicators. In Forex technical analysis a chart is a graphical representation of price movements over a certain time frame. Depending on what information traders search for and what skills they master, they can use certain types of charts: You can easily learn how to use charts and develop trading strategies by chart patterns. Volume shows the number of securities that are traded over a particular time. Higher volume indicates higher degree of intensity or pressure. Being one of the most important factors in trade it is always analyzed and estimated by chartists. In order to determine the upward or downward movement of the volumethey look at the trading volume gistograms usually presented at the bottom of the chart. Any price movement is of more significance if accompanied by a relatively high volume than if accompanied by a weak volume. As mentioned by Forex analyst Huzefa Hamid "volume is the gas in the tank of the trading machine". Though most traders give preference only to technical charts and indicators to make trading decisions, volume is required to move the market. Through the Multiple Time Frame Analysis MTFA you can determine the trend both on smaller and bigger scales and identify the overall market trend. The whole process of MTFA starts with the exact identification analysis the market direction on higher time frames long, short or intermediary and analyzing it through lower time frames starting from a 5-minute chart. Experienced trader Corey Rosenbloom believes that in multiple time frame analysis, monthly, weekly and daily charts should be used to assess when the trends are moving in the same direction. According to him, the analysis of lower time frames gives more information. While technical analysis is focused on the study and past performance of market action, Forex fundamental analysis concentrates on the fundamental reasons that make an impact on the market direction. The premise of Forex fundamental analysis is that macroeconomic indicators like economic growth rates, interest and unemployment rates, inflation, or important political issues can have an impact on financial markets and, therefore, can be used for making trading decisions. The reason why fundamental analysts use so long trend is the following: What people feel and how this makes them behave in Forex market is the concept behind market sentiment. The importance of understanding the opinions of a group of people on a specific topic cannot be underestimated. For each purpose sentiment analysis can offer insight that is valuable and helps to make right decisions. All traders have their own opinions about the market movement, and their thoughts and opinions which are directly reflected in their transactions help to form the overall sentiment of the market. The market by itself is a very complex network made up of a number of individuals whose positions actually represent the sentiment of the market. However, you alone cannot make the market move to your favor; as a trader you analysis your opinion and expectations from the market but if you think that Euro will go up, and others do not think so, you cannot do anything about it. Forex trading strategies can be developed by following popular trading styles which are day trading, carry trade, buy and hold strategy, hedging, portfolio trading, spread trading, swing trading, order trading and algorithmic trading. Using and developing trading strategies mostly depends on understanding your strengths and weaknesses. In order to be successful in trade you should find the best way of trading that suits your personality. Below you can read about each trading style and define your own. Day trading strategies include scalping, fading, daily pivots and momentum trading. In case of performing day trading you can carry out several trades within a day but should liquidate all the trading positions before the market closure. An important factor to remember in day trading is that the longer you hold the positions, the higher your risk of losing will be. Depending on the trading style you choose, the price target may change. Below you can learn about the most widely used day trading strategies. Forex scalping is a day trading strategy which is based on quick and short transactions and is used to make many profits on minor price changes. This type of traders, called as scalpers, can implement up to 2 hundreds trades within a day believing that minor price moves are much easier to follow than large ones. There are particular factors essential for Forex scalping. These are liquidity, volatility, time frame and risk management. Market liquidity has an influence on how traders perform scalping. Some of them prefer trading on a more liquid market so that they can easily move in and out of large positions, while others may prefer trading in a less liquid market that has larger bid-ask spreads. As far as it refers to volatility, scalpers like rather stable products, for them not to worry about sudden price changes. If a security price is stable, scalpers can profit even by setting orders on the same bid and ask, making thousands of forex. The time frame in scalping strategy is significantly short and traders try to profit from such small market moves that are even difficult to see on a one minute chart. Together with making hundreds of small profits during a day, scalpers at the same time can sustain hundreds of small losses. Therefore, they should develop a strict risk management to avoid unexpected losses. It is referred as a contrarian day trading strategy which is used to trade against the prevailing market. Unlike other types of trading which main target is to follow the prevailing trend, fading trading requires to take a position that goes counter to the primary trend. To carry out Fading strategy two limit orders can be placed at market specified prices- a buy limit order should be set below the current price and a sell limit order should be set above it. Fading strategy is extremely risky since it means trading against the prevailing market trend. However, it can be advantageous as well - fade traders can make profit from any price reversal because after a sharp rise or decline the currency it is expected to show some reversals. Thus, if used properly, fading strategy can be a very profitable way of trading. Its followers are believed to be risk takers who follow risk management rules and try to get out of each trade with profit. In its basic sense the pivot point is defined as a turning point. It is considered a technical indicator derived by calculating the numerical average of the high, low and closing prices of currency pairs. In mids a professional trader and analyst Thomas Aspray published weekly and daily pivot levels for the cash forex markets to his institutional clients. As he mentions, at that time the pivot weekly levels were not available in technical analysis programs and the formula was not widely used either. In the last years it was even more surprising for Thomas to discover the secret of quarterly pivot point analysis, again due to John Person. Currently the basic formulae of calculating pivot points are available and are widely used by traders. Moreover, pivot points calculator can be easily found on the Internet. The basis of daily pivots is to determine the support and resistance levels on the chart and identify the entry and exit points. This can be done by the following formulae: Momentum traders use different technical indicators, like MACD, RSI, momentum trend to determine the currency price trend and decide what position to take. They also consider news and heavy volume to make right trading decisions. Momentum trading requires subscribing to news services and monitoring price alerts to continue making profit. According to a well known financial analyst Larry Light, momentum strategies can help investors beat the market and avoid crashes, when coupled with trend-following, which focuses only on stocks that are gaining. Carry trade allows to make a profit from the non-volatile and stable market, since here it rather matters the difference between the interest rates of currencies; the higher the difference, the greater the profit. While deciding what currencies to trade by this strategy you should consider the expected changes in the interest rates of particular currencies. However, this does not mean that the price changes between the currencies are absolutely unimportant. Therefore, carry trade is mostly suitable for trendless or sideways market, when the price movement is expected to remain the same for some time. Hedging is generally understood as a strategy which protects investors from occurrence of events which can cause certain losses. The idea behind currency hedging is to buy a currency and sell another in the hope that the losses on one trade will be offset by the profits made on another trade. This strategy works most efficiently when the currencies are negatively correlated. It forex considered a certain type of strategy whose sole purpose is to mitigate the risk and enhance the winning possibilities. As an example we can take some currency pairs and try to create a hedge. Again we should look at the currency values and choose the one which shows the most comparative weakness. What is more important to note in currency hedging is that risk reduction always means profit reduction, herein, hedging strategy does not guarantee huge profits, rather it can hedge your investment and help you escape losses or at least reduce its extent. However, if developed properly, currency hedging strategy can result in profits for both trades. Portfolio trading, which can also be called basket trading, is based on the combination of different assets belonging to different financial markets Forex, stock, futures, etc. The concept behind portfolio trading is diversification, one of the most popular means of risk reduction. By a smart asset allocation traders protect themselves from market volatility, reduce the risk extent and keep the profit balance. Otherwise, this kind of strategy will be aimless. Currently IFC Markets provides Personal Composite Instrument Trend creation and trading technology based on GeWorko Methodwhich makes it even much easier to trend portfolio trading. In other words, GeWorko Method is a solution that lets you develop and apply strategies which suit best your preferences. A trader who employs buy and hold investment strategy is not interested in short-term price movements and technical indicators. Actually, this strategy is mostly used by stock traders; however some Forex traders also use it, referring to it as a particular method of passive investment. They commonly rely on fundamental analysis rather than technical charts and indicators. This already depends on the type of investor to decide how to apply this strategy. For an active investor it would be more effective to apply technical analysis or other mathematical measures to decide whether to buy or sell. Spread trading can be of two types: In the first case traders can open long and short positions on the same underlying asset trading in different forms e. It is important to find related trading instruments with a noticeable price gap to keep the positive balance between risk and reward. A swing trading position is actually held longer than a day trading position and shorter than a buy-and-hold trading positionwhich can be hold even for years. Swing traders use a set of mathematically based rules to eliminate the emotional aspect of trading forex make an intensive analysis. They can create a trading system using both technical and fundamental analyses to determine the buy and sell points. Order trading helps traders to enter or exit a position at the most suitable moment by using different orders including market orders, pending orders, limit orders, stop orders, stop loss orders and OCO orders. Currently, advanced trading platforms provide various types of orders in trading which are not simply ''buy button'' and ''sell button''. Each type of trading order can represent a specific strategy. It's important to know when and how to trade and which order to use in a given situation in order to develop the right order strategy. The most popular Forex orders that a trader can apply in his trade are:. High-grade platforms include complementary platforms which give an opportunity of algorithmic trading. Such advanced platforms through which traders can perform algorithmic trading are NetTradeX and MetaTrader 4. NetTradeX trading platform besides its main functions, provides automated trading by NetTradeX Advisors. This secondary platform also allows to perform basic trading operations in a "manual" mode, like opening and closing positions, placing orders and using technical analysis tools. MetaTrader 4 trading platform also gives a possibility to execute algorithmic trading through an integrated program language MQL4. On this platform traders can create automatic trading robots, calledAdvisors, and their own indicators. All the functions of creating advisors, including debugging, testing, optimization and program compilation are performed and activated in MT4 Meta-Editor. The Forex trading strategy by robots and programs is developed mainly to avoid the emotional component of trade, as it is thought that the psychological aspect prevents to trade reasonably and mostly has a negative impact on trade. The company has steadily been working since serving its customers in 18 languages of 60 countries over the world, in full accordance with international standards of brokerage services. Forex and CFD trading in OTC market involves significant risk and losses can exceed your investment. Log in to MT4 WebTerminal. About Us About Us.

How to Use Trend Lines in Forex

How to Use Trend Lines in Forex forex market trend analysis

4 thoughts on “Forex market trend analysis”

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